I understand your point about 'commodity' vs 'currency'.
Alt coins are very competitive now, and I am of the opinion that a number of crypto coins will survive and prosper, and I think mincoin will be one of them!
The coins that die will be the ones that have the least number of 'exit' points, and thus, will not generate enough confidence & trust from users. Many coins will have exit points at exchanges only, and for a while that will be enough for people to have confidence and trust enough to hold them.
In the medium to longer term I think the coins that maximise exit points through eCommerce (i.e. buying things through shopping carts) will be the ones that are around in 5 years time. They will have more utility.
IMO there will be too many 'commodity coins' for all of them to survive - the ones that actively promote themselves as currencies will have the best chances.
Like all crypto coins, the real test is this: can you buy something real with mincoin? If in 12 months the answer is 'Yes', then mincoin will be a huge success! Trading a coin is one thing, but without goods/services to buy with MNC, mincoin's future is uncertain.