CSV Rule Activation

[Groovebrother]

Hello,

    The CSV softfork rules will activate only after they are locked-in.

    In order to lock-in the CSV softfork, miners must build blocks signaling support for it.

    We define the rule change activation threshold in line 85 of src/chainparams.cpp.

    Therein, we see during a timespan of 20160 blocks, 95% of them must signal support for the softfork.

    Since there is no overlap between the timespans with regard to CSV softfork rule activation, we need to know when a timespan begins in order to count the blocks signaling support for it during the timespan.

    There have already been 102 timespans of 20160 blocks in our chain.

    The 103rd timespan of 20160 blocks began at height 2056320, 1543635824 seconds after the epoch on 12/01/2018 @ 3:43am (UTC).

    The 104th timespan of 20160 blocks will begin at height 2076480.

    The 105th timespan of 20160 blocks will begin at height 2096640.

 

    Since 95% of the blocks during a timespan of 20160 blocks must signal support for the softfork, this implies if there are 1008 blocks or more during a timespan which do not signal support for the softfork then it will be impossible to lock-in CSV until after the next timespan.

    (1 - 0.95) * 20160 = 1008

 

    It is impossible to lock-in CSV at the end of the 103rd timespan because there have already been more than 1008 v2 blocks mined during the timespan using older software (Mincoin v0.8.8.0).

    Therefore, the earliest possible lock-in for the CSV softfork will be after the 104th timespan and the earliest possible activation will be after the 105th timespan.

    At this rate, we estimate the earliest possible activation for the CSV softfork to be in 33d 7h 25m on 01/12/2019 @ 7:33am (UTC).

-Xi